The radical right has been going through a period of post-Jan. 6 retrenchment and reorganization that has the surface appearance of a decline: A recent study of political violence in the U.S. finds that it declined sharply, numerically speaking, in 2021.
But just as the decline in the total numbers of hate groups over the same period disguised a shift on the ground in which fewer people signaled their radicalization with membership in hate groups, while certain groups also significantly increased in recruitment and in violent activity, the researchers at the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) who compiled the data warn that the underlying conditions around the decline indicate it is far more likely to be a period of calm before the storm.
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